2,000% profit! Ambani eyes Rs 10K cr gain from this bluechip

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man and master of long plays, is poised to make a jaw-dropping Rs 10,000 crore profit on a humble Rs 500 crore investment made at the height of the 2008 global financial crisis. In what is now turning out to be one of the most lucrative stock market trades in recent memory, Reliance Industries’ investment in Asian Paints, India’s dominant player in decorative paints, has swelled to a whopping Rs 10,500 crore.

And that’s without counting dividends.

With dividends factored in, the return jumps to a 24x gain, underlining the value of patience and precision.

RIL, through its investment arm Ojasvi Trading, had picked up a 4.9% stake in Asian Paints back in January 2008, right when markets were in a tailspin amid global financial crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Today, that contrarian move is paying off in the kind of numbers even private equity dreams are made of.

ET reported that RIL has revived plans to sell its entire 4.9% stake in Asian Paints, nearly two decades after buying in. The timing of this move is just as compelling as the investment itself.

Also read | Reliance looks for $1.3-billion gloss finish to its exit from Asian Paints

Asian Paints shares have shed 25% over the past three years, making it one of the worst-performing bluechip stocks in that period. Its once-impregnable fortress is now under siege — notably from Birla Opus Paints, a new entrant backed by the Aditya Birla Group.

According to Elara Securities, Asian Paints' market share has fallen from 59% to 52% in FY25. The erosion is stark, and it’s happening fast.

“We strongly believe that as a brand we need to take calibrated action to ensure that we tackle the competition in a more sustainable way,” Asian Paints CEO Amit Syngle told investors recently.

But headwinds abound. The company has posted muted revenue growth for four straight quarters, citing sluggish urban demand and an early Diwali. More concerning is the margin pressure. Despite lower raw material costs, higher rebates and increased competition have shrunk gross margins year-on-year.

Brokerages have taken note. Nuvama recently cut its FY26-FY27 earnings estimates for Asian Paints by 6-8%, forecasting a modest 7.2% EPS CAGR through FY28. It also slashed the target price to Rs 2,200, keeping its rating neutral and assigning a valuation of 45x forward earnings — a notable 20% discount to the stock’s 10-year average.

This isn’t the first time Ambani has flirted with an exit. Five years ago, Reliance had considered selling the stake ahead of its massive rights issue, as part of a broader deleveraging strategy following Jio’s capex-heavy rollout. That plan never materialized.

Now, with the decorative paint king facing growing heat, the exit door may look far more attractive. As new challengers emerge and consumers tighten their wallets, the stock's golden run may be entering a more muted phase.

For Ambani, the story comes full circle. From crisis to conquest, and now perhaps, closure — with a neat Rs 10,000 crore smile to show for it.

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