UAE-based Indians could lose big on transfers: Here's why

Indian expats in the UAE planning to send money home may want to wait a few more days. The Indian rupee has climbed to its strongest level in a month, making dirham-to-rupee rates less favourable for remittances for now.

As of Thursday evening, 1 dirham fetched ₹23.11, with Friday morning opening at ₹23.20, marking the rupee's highest strength in the last 30 days. The lowest rate during this period was ₹23.62 on June 23.



Why Waiting Could Benefit Expats
Currency experts suggest that a reversal may be imminent, giving NRIs a better exchange rate soon.

“The INR is showing signs of weakening based on early trends today,” said Neelesh Gopalan, Treasury Manager at a Dubai-based remittance platform to local media outlet.
“Last evening’s 23.11 was clearly not favourable. If they wait, there’s a good chance it will return to the 23.3–23.4 range.” This means for every Dh1, Indian expats could get 20–30 paise more by waiting which could be an important difference for large transfers.



What’s Affecting the Rupee? The movement hinges on global factors, including:

• The US Independence Day holiday, which paused dollar market activity on July 4
  
  
• The recently passed US budget, dubbed the "Big Beautiful Bill", which could significantly influence inflation and trade
  
  
• Speculation about an upcoming US-India trade deal, which may impact the rupee’s future performance
  
  
• India’s forex reserves, which remain strong at $698 billion as of June 20, allowing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to manage sharp rupee fluctuations

How High Could the Rupee Go?
According to Subramanian Sharma , Director at Greenback Advisory Services, if the dollar regains strength:

• The AED-INR rate could move to ₹23.25–₹23.50
  
  
• The USD-INR may return to the ₹85.4–₹86.2 range
  
  

“But if the US imposes large tariffs in upcoming trade decisions, the rupee might dip back to ₹86.80 to the dollar,” Sharma warned.


US Budget Bill Could Fuel Global Inflation
The US’s new budget adds over $1 trillion in spending, alongside a steep hike in tariffs covering 500+ import categories including electronics and industrial components. Analysts fear this could trigger inflationary pressures worldwide.

“It’s a high-stakes gamble with inflation,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.
“This bill throws open the taps on spending while throttling the flow of global goods. The rest of the world will pay the price.”


Hence, the key takeaway for expats is: Hold off on fund transfers if possible, exchange rates may improve in the coming week, especially as the dollar gains ground and rupee weakens again.